Risk Assessment Model for Software Development Projects (A Case Study for Iranian Messaging Applications)

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 Department of Operations Management, Faculty of Industrial Management and Technology, College of Management, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran

2 Department of Information Technology Management, Faculty of Industrial Management and Technology, College of Management, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran

3 Department of Production and Operations Management, Faculty of Industrial Management and Technology, College of Management, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran

10.22091/jemsc.2026.15723.1367

Abstract

This study examines the risks associated with the development of messaging platforms in Iran, shaped by restrictive governmental policies and investments in national applications. To identify and prioritize software project risks, exploratory and confirmatory factor analysis were applied, followed by the Best–Worst Method (BWM). In addition, six domestic messaging platforms were evaluated using the VIKOR method to compare their relative risk levels. The analysis categorizes project risks into eight key domains: requirements, scheduling and planning, organizational and project management, personnel, user, environmental, technical, and design. Among these, technical risks emerged as the most critical, reflecting the significant challenges faced by developers in ensuring performance, security, and scalability under constrained conditions. By offering a structured framework for assessing and managing risks in software development projects, this research extends the existing literature on technology creation under restrictive environments. The findings provide practical insights for developers, policymakers, and other stakeholders aiming to balance innovation with regulatory constraints, ultimately supporting more resilient and sustainable growth of national digital platforms.

Keywords

Main Subjects

References

Adzgauskaitė, M., Tam, C., & Martins, R. (2025). What helps Agile remote teams to be successful in developing software? Empirical evidence. Information and Software Technology, 177(1), Article 107593. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.infsof.2024.107593
Aghabegloo, M., Rezaie, K., Torabi, S. A., & Yazdani, M. (2024). Integrating business impact analysis and risk assessment for physical asset criticality analysis: A framework for sustainable operations in process industries. Expert Systems with Applications, 241(1), Article 122737. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eswa.2023.122737
Ahmad, M. O. (2025). Effective handling of large scale agile secure solution development teams. Journal of Decision Systems, 34(1), Article 2458875. https://doi.org/10.1080/12460125.2025.2458875
Almeida, F. (2025). Implementation of a chatbot in a unified communication channel. Journal of Systems and Information Technology, 27(1), 94–115. https://doi.org/10.3390/fi14020063
AlSalem, T. S., Almaiah, M. A., & Lutfi, A. (2023). Cybersecurity risk analysis in the IoT: A systematic review. Electronics, 12(18), Article 3958. https://doi.org/10.3390/electronics12183958
Al-Sharif, R., & Pokharel, S. (2022). Smart city dimensions and associated risks: Review of literature. Sustainable Cities and Society, 77(19), Article 103542. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2021.103542
Aslan, Ö., Aktuğ, S. S., Ozkan-Okay, M., Yilmaz, A. A., & Akin, E. (2023). A comprehensive review of cyber security vulnerabilities, threats, attacks, and solutions. Electronics, 12(6), Article 1333. https://doi.org/10.3390/electronics12061333
Bao, L., Li, T., Xia, X., Zhu, K., Li, H., & Yang, X. (2022). How does working from home affect developer productivity? A case study of Baidu during the COVID-19 pandemic. Science China Information Sciences, 65(4), Article 142102. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11432-020-3278-4
Barros-Justo, J. L., Benitti, F. B., & Molleri, J. S. (2021). Risks and risk mitigation in global software development: An update. Journal of Software: Evolution and Process, 33(11), Article e2370. https://doi.org/10.1002/smr.2370
Beecham, S., Clear, T., Lal, R., & Noll, J. (2021). Do scaling agile frameworks address global software development risks? An empirical study. Journal of Systems and Software, 171(1), Article 110823. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jss.2020.110823
Bugayenko, Y., Bakare, A., Cheverda, A., Farina, M., Kruglov, A., Plaksin, Y., & Succi, G. (2023). Prioritizing tasks in software development: A systematic literature review. PLOS ONE, 18(4), Article e0283838. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0283838
Carvalho, I., & Ivanov, S. (2024). ChatGPT for tourism: Applications, benefits and risks. Tourism Review, 79(2), 290–303. https://doi.org/10.1108/TR-02-2023-0088
Casola, V., De Benedictis, A., Mazzocca, C., & Orbinato, V. (2024). Secure software development and testing: A model-based methodology. Computers & Security, 137(2), Article 103639. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cose.2023.103639
Chen, X., & Deng, Y. (2023). A new belief entropy and its application in software risk analysis. International Journal of Computers Communications & Control, 18(2), Article 5299. https://doi.org/10.15837/ijccc.2023.2.5299
de Paula Porto, D., de Jesus, G. M., Ferrari, F. C., & Fabbri, S. C. P. F. (2021). Initiatives and challenges of using gamification in software engineering: A systematic mapping. Journal of Systems and Software, 173(9), Article 110870. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jss.2020.110870
Ding, H., Zhuang, C., & Liu, J. (2023). Extensions of the resource-constrained project scheduling problem. Automation in Construction, 153, Article 104958. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.autcon.2023.104958
Duarte, B. B., de Almeida Falbo, R., Guizzardi, G., Guizzardi, R., & Souza, V. E. S. (2021). An ontological analysis of software system anomalies and their associated risks. Data & Knowledge Engineering, 134(1), Article 101892. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.datak.2021.101892
Ebert, C., & Louridas, P. (2023). Generative AI for software practitioners. IEEE Software, 40(4), 30–38. https://doi.org/10.1109/MS.2023.3265877
Edison, H., Wang, X., & Conboy, K. (2021). Comparing methods for large-scale agile software development: A systematic literature review. IEEE Transactions on Software Engineering, 48(8), 2709–2731. https://doi.org/10.1109/TSE.2021.3069039
Filippetto, A. S., Lima, R., & Barbosa, J. L. V. (2021). A risk prediction model for software project management based on similarity analysis of context histories. Information and Software Technology, 131(1), Article 106497. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.infsof.2020.106497
Foldnes, N., Moss, J., & Grønneberg, S. (2025). Improved goodness of fit procedures for structural equation models. Structural Equation Modeling: A Multidisciplinary Journal, 32(1), 1–13. https://doi.org/10.1080/10705511.2024.2372028
Fortuny-Sicart, A., Pansera, M., & Lloveras, J. (2024). Directing innovation through confrontation and democratisation: The case of platform cooperativism. Journal of Responsible Innovation, 11(1), Article 2414512. https://doi.org/10.1080/23299460.2024.2414512
Gouthaman, P., & Sankaranarayanan, S. (2021). Prediction of risk percentage in software projects by training machine learning classifiers. Computers & Electrical Engineering, 94(2), Article 107362. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.compeleceng.2021.107362
Hsieh, M. Y., Hsu, Y. C., & Lin, C. T. (2018). Risk assessment in new software development projects at the front end: A fuzzy logic approach. Journal of Ambient Intelligence and Humanized Computing, 9(2), 295–305. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12652-016-0372-5
Hussain, S., Anwaar, H., Sultan, K., Mahmud, U., Farooqui, S., Karamat, T., & Toure, I. K. (2024). Mitigating software vulnerabilities through secure software development with a policy-driven waterfall model. Journal of Engineering, 2024(1), Article 9962691. https://doi.org/10.1155/2024/9962691
Islam, G., & Storer, T. (2020). A case study of agile software development for safety-critical systems projects. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 200(10), Article 106954. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2020.106954
Jingwen, Y., Rahman, A. A., Tong, T., Kamarulzaman, N. H., & Sidek, S. B. (2025). A study of Chinese enterprises' business models to determine the impact of dynamic capabilities on innovation and performance. PLOS ONE, 20(1), Article e0310854. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0310854
Johny, D., Padhi, S. S., & Cheng, T. C. E. (2026). Drone selection for disaster responses: An application of the stratified-best-worst method. Management Decision, 64(1), 333–374. https://doi.org/10.1108/MD-07-2024-1658
Kern, C. (2024). Developer ecosystems for software safety. Communications of the ACM, 67(6), 52–60. https://doi.org/10.1145/3651621
Khan, W., Kumar, T., Zhang, C., Raj, K., Roy, A. M., & Luo, B. (2023). SQL and NoSQL database software architecture performance analysis and assessments—A systematic literature review. Big Data and Cognitive Computing, 7(2), Article 97. https://doi.org/10.3390/bdcc7020097
Laporte, C. Y., Verret, G., & Muñoz, M. (2023). A software project that partially failed: A small organization that ignored the management and technical practices of software standards. Computer, 56(5), 138–144. https://doi.org/10.1109/MC.2023.3253979
Leong, J., May Yee, K., Baitsegi, O., Palanisamy, L., & Ramasamy, R. K. (2023). Hybrid project management between traditional software development lifecycle and agile based product development for future sustainability. Sustainability, 15(2), Article 1121. https://doi.org/10.3390/su15021121
Li, R., Liang, P., Soliman, M., & Avgeriou, P. (2022). Understanding software architecture erosion: A systematic mapping study. Journal of Software: Evolution and Process, 34(3), Article e2423. https://doi.org/10.1002/smr.2423
Ma, D., & Wu, W. (2024). Does artificial intelligence drive technology convergence? Evidence from Chinese manufacturing companies. Technology in Society, 79(5), Article 102715. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techsoc.2024.102715
Mamman, H., Balogun, A. O., Basri, S., Capretz, L. F., Adeyemo, V. E., Imam, A. A., & Kumar, G. (2023). Software requirement risk prediction using enhanced fuzzy induction models. Electronics, 12(18), Article 3805. https://doi.org/10.3390/electronics12183805
Masur, P. K., Epstein, D., Quinn, K., Wilhelm, C., Baruh, L., & Lutz, C. (2025). Comparative privacy research: Literature review, framework, and research agenda. The Information Society, 41(2), 69–90. https://doi.org/10.1080/01972243.2025.2451863
Metin, B., Duran, S., Telli, E., Mutlutürk, M., & Wynn, M. (2024). IT risk management: Towards a system for enhancing objectivity in asset valuation that engenders a security culture. Information, 15(1), Article 55. https://doi.org/10.3390/info15010055
Ming, C., Yu, X., & Zhang, B. (2024). Assessing the infringement risk of patent portfolios using network analysis and IF-TOPSIS: A case of standard-essential patent portfolios in the ICT industry. Technology in Society, 78, Article 102663. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techsoc.2024.102663
Opricovic, S., & Tzeng, G. H. (2007). Extended VIKOR method in comparison with outranking methods. European Journal of Operational Research, 178(2), 514–529. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2006.01.020
Razzaq, A., & Ghayyur, S. A. (2023). A systematic mapping study: The new age of software architecture from monolithic to microservice architecture—Awareness and challenges. Computer Applications in Engineering Education, 31(2), 421–451. https://doi.org/10.1002/cae.22586
Rezaei, J. (2015). Best-worst multi-criteria decision-making method. Omega, 53(2), 49–57. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.omega.2014.11.009
Rezaei, J., Nispeling, T., Sarkis, J., & Tavasszy, L. (2016). A supplier selection life cycle approach integrating traditional and environmental criteria using the best worst method. Journal of Cleaner Production, 135(8), 577–588. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2016.06.125
Sangaiah, A. K., Samuel, O. W., Li, X., Abdel-Basset, M., & Wang, H. (2018). Towards an efficient risk assessment in software projects–Fuzzy reinforcement paradigm. Computers & Electrical Engineering, 71, 833–846. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.compeleceng.2017.07.022
Singal, P., Sharma, P., & Kumari, A. C. (2022). Integrating software effort estimation with risk management. International Journal of System Assurance Engineering and Management, 13(5), 2413–2428. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13198-022-01652-y
Song, H., Chang, R., Cheng, H., Liu, P., & Yan, D. (2024). The impact of manufacturing digital supply chain on supply chain disruption risks under uncertain environment—Based on dynamic capability perspective. Advanced Engineering Informatics, 60(12), Article 102385. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aei.2024.102385
Suárez, J., & Vizcaíno, A. (2024). Stress, motivation, and performance in global software engineering. Journal of Software: Evolution and Process, 36(5), Article e2600. https://doi.org/10.1002/smr.2600
Tam, C., da Costa Moura, E. J., Oliveira, T., & Varajão, J. (2020). The factors influencing the success of on-going agile software development projects. International Journal of Project Management, 38(3), 165–176. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijproman.2020.02.001
Tavakoli, N., Rafieian, M., Amirjani, R., & Shahinrad, M. (2026). Women's recreational walking preferences in urban streets: A structural equation modeling approach. Cities, 171, Article 106721. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2025.106721
Tonellato, M., Tasselli, S., Conaldi, G., Lerner, J., & Lomi, A. (2024). A microstructural approach to self-organizing: The emergence of attention networks. Organization Science, 35(2), 496–524.
Tuunanen, T., Vartiainen, T., Kainulainen, S., & Ebrahim, M. (2023). Development of an agile requirements risk prioritization method: A design science research study. Communications of the Association for Information Systems, 52(1), 609–637. https://doi.org/10.17705/1CAIS.05226
Ullah, A., & Xinlei, L. (2024). Navigating complex interdependence: An in-depth analysis of Iran and Saudi Arabia's strategic engagement with the BRI in the Middle East. Chinese Political Science Review, 29(2), 257–281. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11366-023-09860-4
Vujović, V., Denić, N., Stevanović, V., Stevanović, M., Stojanović, J., Cao, Y., & Radojkovic, I. (2020). Project planning and risk management as a success factor for IT projects in agricultural schools in Serbia. Technology in Society, 63(2), Article 101371. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techsoc.2020.101371
Wan, M., Yu, M., Lei, J., Yang, S., & Wang, Z. (2026). Optimization of diesel engine comprehensive economy and emissions based on the RSM-NSGA III-VIKOR method. Energy Conversion and Management: X, Article 101811. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecmx.2026.101811
Wang, Y., Arora, C., Liu, X., Hoang, T., Malhotra, V., Cheng, B., & Grundy, J. (2025). Who uses personas in requirements engineering: The practitioners' perspective. Information and Software Technology, 178, Article 107609. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.infsof.2024.107609
Waqar, A., Othman, I., Shafiq, N., & Mansoor, M. S. (2023). Applications of AI in oil and gas projects towards sustainable development: A systematic literature review. Artificial Intelligence Review, 56(11), 12771–12798. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10462-023-10467-7
Wiesche, M. (2021). Interruptions in agile software development teams. Project Management Journal, 52(2), 210–222. https://doi.org/10.1177/8756972821991365
Wu, D., Zhu, X., Wan, J., Bao, C., & Li, J. (2019). A multiobjective optimization approach for selecting risk response strategies of software project: From the perspective of risk correlations. International Journal of Information Technology & Decision Making, 18(1), 339–364. https://doi.org/10.1142/S0219622019410013
Yalcintas, A., & Alizadeh, N. (2020). Digital protectionism and national planning in the age of the internet: The case of Iran. Journal of Institutional Economics, 16(4), 519–536. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1744137420000077
Yasin, A., Fatima, R., JiangBin, Z., Ali Khan, J., & Ali Khan, A. (2024). Gamifying requirements: An empirical analysis of game-based technique for novices. Journal of Software: Evolution and Process, 36(6), Article e2617. https://doi.org/10.1002/smr.2617
Zhang, P., Ding, S., & Zhao, Q. (2024). Exploiting blockchain to make AI trustworthy: A software development lifecycle view. ACM Computing Surveys, 56(7), 1–31. https://doi.org/10.1145/3614424
Marjani, M. R., Jabbari, M., & Aghaee, M. (2026). A Hybrid Approach Based on Data Density Analysis for Group Supplier Selection Problem Considering Multi-Level Risk Assessment: A Case Study. Journal of Data Analytics and Intelligent Decision-making, 2(3), 1-28. doi: 10.22091/jdaid.2026.16147.1066
Bahadori Jahromi, H. (2026). From Analytics to Agility: How Smart Contract Capability and Supply Chain Digitalization Strengthen Supply Chain Performance in Financial Services. Journal of Data Analytics and Intelligent Decision-making, 2(3), 29-54. doi: 10.22091/jdaid.2026.16727.1094
Kiani, M. S. (2026). Sports Law and Coaches' Responsibility: Challenges and New Approaches in Iran. Journal of Data Analytics and Intelligent Decision-making, 2(2), 1-9. doi: 10.22091/jdaid.2026.15415.1035
Molani Aghdam, M., & Ardeshir Larijani, I. (2026). Artificial neural network evaluating nonlinear evolutionary effect of cognitive and risk complexity in Ambidextrous strategy renewal. Journal of Data Analytics and Intelligent Decision-making, 2(2), 10-30. doi: 10.22091/jdaid.2026.15918.1050
Joshan, A. (2026). Analysis of Emerging Approaches in Cybersecurity for Internet of Things (IoT) Networks with an Emphasis on Smart Urban and Domestic Infrastructures. Journal of Data Analytics and Intelligent Decision-making, 2(1), 1-16. doi: 10.22091/jdaid.2026.15424.1036
Jamshidi Gahrouei, A., & Asgharian, R. (2026). AI-Driven Protection Schemes for Modern Power Grids: Technologies, Challenges, and Opportunities. Journal of Data Analytics and Intelligent Decision-making, 2(1), 17-30. doi: 10.22091/jdaid.2026.15133.1032
Shahabi, V., Sarhangi, R., & Mehdiabadi, A. (2025). Explaining IT Governance for Implementing Branchless Banking Through Digital Transformation. Journal of Data Analytics and Intelligent Decision-making, 1(4), 1-31. doi: 10.22091/jdaid.2026.14530.1018
Joshan, A. (2025). Towards a Human-Centric Industry 5.0 Enabled by the Convergence of Artificial Intelligence, Internet of Things, and Blockchain. Journal of Data Analytics and Intelligent Decision-making, 1(4), 32-49. doi: 10.22091/jdaid.2026.14749.1025
Riki, M., Mohammadi, F., & Eslami, E. (2025). Video Coding Machine Architecture for Smart Urban Traffic Optimization with Deep Learning. Journal of Data Analytics and Intelligent Decision-making, 1(3), 1-12. doi: 10.22091/jdaid.2025.14036.1003
Mansoori, A. (2025). The Application of Artificial Intelligence in Human Resource Performance Appraisal: A Conceptual Framework for Responsible Implementation. Journal of Data Analytics and Intelligent Decision-making, 1(3), 13-30. doi: 10.22091/jdaid.2025.14114.1009
Jafari, H., Etebari, A., & Jafari, M. (2025). Proposing a Developed Gram–Schmidt Algorithm to Construct Orthogonal Unit Vectors (A Mathematical and Practical Approach). Journal of Data Analytics and Intelligent Decision-making, 1(2), 61-78. doi: 10.22091/jdaid.2025.14004.1001
Hasani, M., Deiranlou, M., & Karimi, H. (2025). Designing an Efficient Bike-Sharing System for the University of Bojnord. Journal of Data Analytics and Intelligent Decision-making, 1(2), 79-89. doi: 10.22091/jdaid.2025.14320.1014
Tavakkoli-Moghaddam, R., Akbari, A. H., Tanhaeean, M., Moghdani, R., Gholian-Jouybari, F., & Hajiaghaei-Keshteli, M. (2024). Multi-objective boxing match algorithm for multi-objective optimization problems. Expert Systems with Applications, 239, 122394. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eswa.2023.122394
Send comment about this article
CAPTCHA Image

Files

Share

How to cite

Statistics