افزایش دقت پیش‌بینی زمان و هزینه پروژه با إعمال اثرات مخاطره‌های پروژه و درنظر گرفتن وابستگی متقابل مخاطره‌ها با استفاده از مفهوم طبقه‌بندی

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشکده مهندسی صنایع و سیستم های مدیریت، دانشگاه صنعتی امیرکبیر، تهران، ایران

2 گروه مهندسی صنایع و سیستم های مدیریت، دانشکده مهندسی صنایع و سیستم های مدیریت، دانشگاه صنعتی امیرکبیر، تهران، ایران

10.22091/jemsc.2025.11594.1219

چکیده

عدم قطعیت در پروژه‌ها احتمال ایجاد حالت‌های مختلفی از وقوع مخاطره‌ها را پدید می‌آورد که باعث کاهش دقت پیش‌بینی زمان و هزینه پروژه می‌شود. در مقاله حاضر، یک الگوی پیش‌بینی ارائه شده که این دقت را ضمن درنظر گرفتن فرآیندهای مدیریت مخاطره و روابط وابستگی مخاطره‌ها با استفاده از مفهوم طبقه‌بندی بهبود می‌بخشد. در واقع با استفاده از مفهوم طبقه‌بندی، کلیه حالت‌های وقوع مخاطره‌ها به همراه اثرات آنها بر زمان و هزینه پروژه ارزیابی می‌شوند. نتایج پیاده‌سازی الگوی پیشنهادی در یک پروژه احداث سد، افزایش ۴۴.۷۳ درصدی زمان واقعی به نسبت زمان پیش‌بینی شده و افزایش ۳۱.۱۳ درصدی هزینه واقعی به نسبت هزینه پیش‌بینی شده را در صورت درنظر نگرفتن مخاطره‌ها و کاهش 9.66 درصدی زمان پروژه و کاهش 15.14 درصدی هزینه پروژه را در صورت اجرای راهبردهای پاسخگویی نشان می‌دهد و اهمیت إعمال فرآیندهای مدیریت مخاطره در پیش‌بینی زمان و هزینه پروژه را برجسته می‌کند. انجام تحلیل حساسیت الگوی پیشنهادی نیز ضرورت ارزیابی کلیه طبقات و حالات وقوع مخاطره‌های پروژه را با استفاده از مفهوم طبقه‌بندی در مراحل ارزیابی و پاسخگویی مخاطره‌ها تأیید می‌کند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Increasing the accuracy of predicting project time and cost by applying the effects of project risks and considering the interdependence of risks using the concept of stratification

نویسندگان [English]

  • Fatemeh Moazemi Goodarzi 1
  • Maryam Ashrafi 2
  • Seyed Hasan Ghodsypour 2
1 Faculty of Industrial Engineering and Management Systems, Amirkabir University of Technology, Tehran, Iran
2 Industrial Engineering Department, Faculty of Industrial Engineering and Management Systems, Amirkabir University of Technology, Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

Uncertainty in projects reduces the accuracy of predicting project time and cost. In this article, a forecasting model is presented that improves this accuracy while considering risk management processes and risk dependency relationships using the concept of stratification. Using the concept of stratification, all the occurrences of risks are evaluated along with their effects on the time and cost of the project. The results of the implementation of the proposed model in a dam construction project showed a 44.73% increase in actual time compared to the predicted time and a 31.13% increase in the actual cost compared to the predicted cost if risks are not considered and a 9.66% decrease in the project time and decrease 15.14% shows the project cost if response strategies are implemented, and highlights the importance of applying risk management processes in predicting project time and cost. Carrying out the sensitivity analysis of the proposed model also confirms the necessity of evaluating all classes and occurrences of project risks using the concept of stratification in the risk assessment and response stages.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Risk management
  • Predicting time and cost
  • Interdependence of risks
  • Concept of stratification
  • Risk assessment and response

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