آینده‌پژوهی تأمین مالی پایدار در صنعت حمل‌و‌نقل دریایی با رویکرد سناریونگاری

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری، گروه حسابداری، واحد قم، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، قم، ایران

2 دانشیار، گروه مدیریت، دانشگاه قم، قم، ایران

3 استادیار، گروه حسابداری، واحد قم، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، قم، ایران

4 استادیار، گروه حسابداری، واحد قم, دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، قم، ایران

چکیده

الزامات محیط زیستی ونیازبسیاری ازپروژه های حمل و نقل دربخش دریابه تامین مالی،بررسی آینده تامین مالی پایداردرصنعت حمل و نقل دریایی رابا اهمیت نموده است با وجود تحقیقات گسترده درحوزه آینده پژوهی دربخش حمل ونقل،تحقیقات کمی در زمینه آینده حمل ونقل دریایی وتامین مالی آن انجام شده است.پژوهش حاضربه دنبال شناسایی پیشران‌ها وسناریوهای آینده تأمین مالی پایدار درصنعت حمل‌و‌نقل دریایی با رویکرد سناریونگاری است.تحقیق حاضرازنظرجهت‌گیری،کاربردی بوده وازمنظر روش‌شناسی،یک مطالعه آمیخته است.جامعه نظری پژوهش،مشاوران ومتخصصین تأمین مالی پایداروآینده‌پژوهی درصنعت حمل‌و‌نقل دریایی هستند..حجم نمونه برابربا 10 نفربود.مصاحبه وپرسشنامه،دوابزارمهم گردآوری داده دراین پژوهش بودند.ازدو روش کمی دلفی فازی وکوکوسو و روش کیفی مصاحبه با گروه‌های کانونی استفاده شد.25 پیشران از طریق مرورادبیات ومصاحبه با خبرگان استخراج شد.این پیشران‌ها با توزیع پرسشنامه‌های خبره‌سنجی و روش دلفی فازی غربال شدند.پیشران‌های غربال شده با توزیع پرسشنامه‌های اولویت‌سنجی و روش کوکوسو رتبه‌بندی شدند. نهایتاً سناریوهای پژوهش بر اساس پیشران‌های دارای اولویت و روش مصاحبه با گروه‌های کانونی توسعه یافتند.این سناریوها عبارت بودند از:تأمین مالی متکثر، تأمین مالی بانک‌محور، تأمین مالی فناوری‌محور و سیاه چاله تأمین مالی.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Futures study of sustainable financing in the marine transportation industry with a scenario approach

نویسندگان [English]

  • Javad Dehghani 1
  • Mohammad Hasan Maleki 2
  • Mohammad Reza Pourfakharan 3
  • Mojgan Safa 4
1 Ph.D. student, Department of Accounting, Qom Branch, Islamic Azad University, Qom, Iran,
2 Associate Prof, Department of Management, University of Qom, Qom, Iran
3 Assistant Prof, Department of Accounting, Qom Branch, Islamic Azad University, Qom, Iran
4 Assistant Prof, Department of Accounting, Qom Branch, Islamic Azad University, Qom, Iran
چکیده [English]

The environmental requirements and the need of many transportation projects in the maritime sector for financing have made it important to examine the future of sustainable financing in the maritime transportation industry.Despite extensive research in the field of future study in the transportation sector,little research has been done on the future of maritime transportation and its financing.The current research seeks to identify the drivers and future scenarios of sustainable financing in the maritime transportation industry with a scenario-based approach.It is applied and a mixed study.The theoretical population of the research is consultants and specialists in sustainable financing and future study in the maritime transportation industry.The sample size was 10 people.Interview and questionnaire were two important data collection tools.25 drivers were extracted through literature review and interviews with experts and screened by distribution of expert questionnaires and fuzzy Delphi method.the screened drivers were ranked by distributing priority questionnaires and the CoCoSo method.Finally the research scenarios were developed based on priority drivers and interview method with focus groups.These scenarios were:plural financing,bank-based financing,technology-based financing and black hole financing.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Futues Study
  • Financing
  • Sustainable Financing
  • Scenario Planning
  • Maritime Transport

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