Increasing the accuracy of predicting project time and cost by applying the effects of project risks and considering the interdependence of risks using the concept of stratification

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 Faculty of Industrial Engineering and Management Systems, Amirkabir University of Technology, Tehran, Iran

2 Industrial Engineering Department, Faculty of Industrial Engineering and Management Systems, Amirkabir University of Technology, Tehran, Iran

10.22091/jemsc.2025.11594.1219

Abstract

Uncertainty in projects reduces the accuracy of predicting project time and cost. In this article, a forecasting model is presented that improves this accuracy while considering risk management processes and risk dependency relationships using the concept of stratification. Using the concept of stratification, all the occurrences of risks are evaluated along with their effects on the time and cost of the project. The results of the implementation of the proposed model in a dam construction project showed a 44.73% increase in actual time compared to the predicted time and a 31.13% increase in the actual cost compared to the predicted cost if risks are not considered and a 9.66% decrease in the project time and decrease 15.14% shows the project cost if response strategies are implemented, and highlights the importance of applying risk management processes in predicting project time and cost. Carrying out the sensitivity analysis of the proposed model also confirms the necessity of evaluating all classes and occurrences of project risks using the concept of stratification in the risk assessment and response stages.

Keywords

Main Subjects

References

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