University of Qom Journal of Engineering Management and Soft Computing 3116-0158 12 2 2026 04 01 Scenario-Based Robust Decision-Making in Health Tourism Service Supply Chains 242 259 4304 10.22091/jemsc.2026.14971.1334 EN Amirhossein Saffarinia Department of Management and Accounting, College of Farabi, University of Tehran, Iran 0009-0005-9523-7354 Mohammad Reza Fathi Associate Professor, Department of Management and Accounting, College of Farabi, University of Tehran, Iran 0000-0002-7973-9814 Mohammad Javad Pahlevanzadeh Department of Management and Accounting, College of Farabi, University of Tehran, Iran 0000-0003-4203-2644 Samaneh Raeesi Nafchi Assistant Professor of Industrial Management, Shiraz University of Technology-Lamerd Higher Education Center, Fars, Iran 0000-0003-3412-037X Journal Article 2025 12 23 Health tourism is a dynamic sector of Iran’s economy with strong potential in the religious city of Qom. This study develops plausible future scenarios for the health tourism service supply chain and identifies suitable strategies using Robustness Analysis (RA). A mixed qualitative–quantitative design is employed. First, key influencing factors are identified through expert interviews and a literature review. Next, alternative scenarios are constructed and evaluated using a weighted decision-matrix that simultaneously accounts for system complexity and environmental uncertainty in a participatory decision-making setting. The analysis yields seven distinct scenarios derived from eight key factors, ranging from an ideal future characterized by sustainable development and attraction of religious markets to a pessimistic future marked by sanctions-driven stagnation and multiple crises. The RA results indicate that vertical integration and market development perform best under favorable conditions, whereas retrenchment and heterogeneous diversification are more effective under crisis conditions. The proposed weighted RA decision matrix provides a practical decision-support tool for policymakers and healthcare managers in Qom to select resilient strategies across diverse environmental futures. https://jemsc.qom.ac.ir/article_4304_7429dc90d446bec16d15627ec42ab675.pdf